Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 3.366519 3.653234 3.982081 4.394978 4.911996 5.557473 6.461187
2024-12-22 2.938888 3.280850 3.700189 4.273489 5.078261 6.252913 8.337665
2024-12-29 2.767610 3.155707 3.656873 4.392486 5.540351 7.523100 12.435225
2025-01-05 2.555467 2.942776 3.455446 4.235356 5.524381 7.994621 16.038974
2025-01-12 2.384825 2.764022 3.274210 4.069427 5.438567 8.281709 20.457729
2025-01-19 2.269520 2.647802 3.165424 3.993267 5.484262 8.892312 32.156091
2025-01-26 2.225244 2.622805 3.181408 4.112833 5.924964 10.919098 NaN
2025-02-02 2.206014 2.629460 3.242296 4.315040 6.615683 15.130688 NaN
2025-02-09 2.148126 2.576122 3.205733 4.338906 6.919162 18.975114 NaN
2025-02-16 2.100595 2.534140 3.182250 4.381964 7.294611 26.159395 NaN
2025-02-23 2.019781 2.438838 3.066822 4.234340 7.098011 26.862775 NaN
2025-03-02 1.971006 2.388452 3.020152 4.215287 7.273282 36.233284 NaN
2025-03-09 1.920943 2.336045 2.970343 4.191879 7.460222 58.877798 NaN
2025-03-16 1.859527 2.264102 2.884385 4.086326 7.354029 75.157343 NaN
2025-03-23 1.840765 2.255122 2.901380 4.194574 8.031128 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.781337 2.181670 2.805539 4.051966 7.733360 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.723736 2.109296 2.708693 3.900744 7.376592 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.683052 2.061542 2.651568 3.831125 7.321236 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.674186 2.061984 2.675917 3.940363 8.023704 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.676140 2.078997 2.729670 4.124367 9.252805 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.654187 2.057589 2.714454 4.146023 9.730803 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.635750 2.040985 2.706769 4.185062 10.373441 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.595403 1.988383 2.631920 4.051043 9.836211 NaN NaN